Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 6-11-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Kiwi Plummets after RBNZ Rate Cut, Aussie Rebounds on Job

New Zealand dollar tumbled after RBNZ cut the official cash rate by 25bps to 3.25%. That was seen as a surprised move by some traders. More importantly, the central bank maintained easing bias after the rate cut. The central bank noted in the statement that fall in commodity prices since mid last year was "more pronounced". Income and demand growth will slow due to weak prospect for dairy prices and rebound in petrol prices. Inflation was subdued and is expected to return to mid-point later than expected. Regarding exchange rate, RBNZ expected "further significant downward adjustment is justified." And, the central bank expected "further easing may be appropriate" depending on incoming data. NZD/USD resumed recent down trend and is heading to 0.7 handle.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7669; (P) 0.7726; (R1) 0.7818; More...

At this point, AUD/USD is still bounded in sideway trading above 0.7597 temporary low. With 0.7839 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. We're holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 0.7625 has completed at 0.8161 already and larger down trend is possibly resuming. Below 0.7597 will target 0.7532 first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 0.8910 to 0.7625 from 0.8161 at 0.7367 next. However, above 0.7839 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 0.7625 is extending with another rise towards 0.8161 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 3.25% 3.50% 3.50%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance May 34% 35% 33%
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q2 -6 3.2 2.4
01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun 3.00% 3.60%
01:30 AUD Employment Change May 42.0K 15.2K -2.9K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate May 6.00% 6.20% 6.20%
05:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May 10.20% 10.00%
05:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 6.10% 5.90%
05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y May 12.00% 12.00%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Apr 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q1 83.60% 83.60%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May 0.80% 0.00%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May 0.70% 0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M May 0.80% -0.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 6) 277K 276K
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 0.10% 0.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 132B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency retreated after intra-day brief rise to 1.1386, offers are still noted at 1.1385, 1.1400 and 1.1430, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.1450, 1.1475 and 1.1500. On the downside, bids at 1.1300 and 1.1285 were filled but buy orders are still seen at 1.1250, 1.1230 and 1.1200, buying interest should emerge around 1.1185, 1.1150 and 1.1130, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7230

Euro's retreat after yesterday's brief breach of 0.7386 suggests consolidation below yesterday's high of 0.7389 would be seen and pullback to 0.7250 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7220-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7055-0.7389) and bring another rise later. Above 0.7365 resistance would bring retest of 0.7389 but break there is needed to extend the rebound from 0.7055 to 0.7420

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.2350 or buy at 1.2100

As the greenback has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the fall from 1.2563 (last week's high) is still in progress for correction of the entire rise from 1.1920, hence downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.2150, then towards 1.2100, however, reckon 1.2050 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Above 1.2300-10 would bring recovery to 1.2350-55 but previous support at 1.2368 should turn into resistance and limit upside, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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