Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-17-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Soars on Wage Growth, FOMC Next

Sterling jumps sharply today on strong wage growth and BoE minutes. UK job data showed jobless claims dropped -6.5k in May versus expectation of -13.8k fall. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5% in April, staying at the lowest level since August 2008. Unemployment dropped by -43k to 1.81m. The surprise was in wages, which grew 2.7% yoy, the fastest pace since August 2011. Employment minister Priti Patel said that the data "confirm our long-term economic plan is already starting to deliver a better, more prosperous future" for UK. And, "with wages rising, more people finding jobs and more women in work than ever before". Chief economist at British Chambers of Commerce note that "the speed in the rise in earnings will embolden a minority on the Monetary Policy Committee who feel the urge to raise rates."

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.33; (P) 192.73; (R1) 193.42; More.....

GBP/JPY surges to as high as 195.20 so far today and recent rally picks up momentum again. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise should target 100% projection of 168.01 to 189.70 from 174.86 at 196.55 next. Decisive break there will bring a test on 200 key cluster resistance level. On the downside, below 192.94 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q1 0.662B 0.282B -3.194B -3.170B
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) May -0.18T -0.17T -0.21T -0.24T
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M May -0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change May -6.5K -13.8K -12.6K -7.8K
08:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate May 2.70% 2.20% 2.30%
08:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Apr 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes
08:30 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
08:30 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
09:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Jun 0.1 -0.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y May F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y May F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Apr 1.90% 0.30% 0.80% 1.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -6.8M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly after finding support at 1.1189, offers are still noted at 1.1260, 1.1280 and 1.1300, more sell orders are reported at 1.1320, 1.1340 and 1.1365, selling interest is tipped at 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1200-05 and 1.1185, buy orders are expected at 1.1150, 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest should emerge around 1.1080-85, 1.1065 and 1.1050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5650

As the British pound has surged again after brief pullback and indicated previous resistance at 1.5700 was penetrated, adding credence to our bullishness for recent rise to extend further gain to 1.5770 and later towards 1.5800, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5840-50, risk from there has increased for a correction to take place later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Stand aside

Although euro has rebounded after finding support at 1.1205 yesterday and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1300, break of yesterday's high at 1.1330 is needed to revive bullishness and bring further rise to 1.1350-55, above there would signal the correction from 1.1386 (last week's high) has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would indicated the rise from 1.0819 has resumed for further gain to 1.1400-10, then 1.1445

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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