Thursday, June 18, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-18-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selloff Continues, SNB Stood Pat

Dollar continues to suffer post FOMC selloff and weakens broadly today. The dollar index reaches as low as 93.56 so far today and is heading to 93.13 support. Economic data released from US were not bad but provided little support to the greenback. Initial jobless claims dropped to 267k in the week ended June 13, lower than expectation of 275k. That's also close to the 15 year low made two months ago. The four week moving average dropped -2k to 276.75k. Continuing claims dropped -50k to 2.22m. Headline CPI rose 0.4% mom in May, the strongest rise since February 2013. But that missed expectation of 0.5% mom. Year-over-year CPI was flat, inline with expectation. Core CPI rose 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy but also missed expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.8% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1242; (P) 1.1300 (R1) 1.1395; More....

The break of 1.1379 resistance confirm resumption of rise from 1.0818. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1466 resistance, Also, the whole rebound from 1.0461 is likely resuming too. Break of 1.1466 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. At this point, such rise is viewed as a corrective move and we'd expect strong resistance from 1.1810 to bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.1204 minor support will turn focus back to 1.0818 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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MT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.20% 0.60% 0.80% 0.70%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) May 3.43B 2.86B 2.86B 2.66B
07:30 CHF SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M May 0.20% -0.10% 1.20% 0.90%
12:30 USD CPI M/M May 0.40% 0.50% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y May 0.00% 0.00% -0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M May 0.10% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y May 1.70% 1.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 13) 267K 275K 279K
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Jun 15.2 8 6.7
14:00 USD Leading Indicators May 0.70% 0.40% 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, offers are still noted at 1.1425-30, 1.1450 and 1.1475, selling interest is tipped at 1.1500, 1.1530 and 1.1550. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1340-50, 1.1325 and 1.1300, buy orders are reported at 1.1285, 1.1240 and 1.1220, buying interest should emerge around 1.1200, 1.1185 and 1.1150, fresh demand is located at 1.1130 and 1.1100.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5810

Current rally above previous resistance at 1.5815 confirms our view that the upmove from 1.4566 low has resumed and further gain to 1.5940-50 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp rise beyond psychological resistance at 1.6000 and reckon 1.6040-50 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1300

As the single currency found renewed buying interest just above yesterday's low at 1.1205 and has staged a strong rebound, adding credence to our view that the pullback from 1.1386 has ended at 1.1151 and bullishness remains for the rise from 1.0819 to extend gain to 1.1430, then 1.1450, however, previous resistance at 1.1467 should hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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