Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Action Insight Daily Report 7-1-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Mixed on Greece, Yen Firm after Positive Tankan

Euro remains mixed as markets are closely watching the development in Greece. IMF spokesman Gerry Rice confirmed that Greece missed the EUR 1.5b payment after the deadline and that's the largest missed payment in the fund's history. And, Greece would now only receive further funding from IMF after the arrears are cleared. Meanwhile, Greece has asked for an extension earlier yesterday and IMF will consider "in due course". German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected further talk with Greece before the July 5 referendum called by Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras. Merkel said rather bluntly that "We'll negotiate about absolutely nothing before the planned referendum is held."

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2405; (P) 1.2452; (R1) 1.2542; More...

The rise from 1.2127 resumed by taking out 1.2422 and reaches as high as 1.2499 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for testing 1.2562 resistance. Rise from 1.1919 is likely resuming and break of 1.2562 will target a test on 1.2834 key resistance next. Meanwhile, below 1.2302 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2127 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 15 12 12
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 23 22 19
1:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Jun 50.2 50.4 50.2
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Jun 53.8 53.2
1:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M May 2.40% 1.30% -4.40% -5.20%
1:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.1 49.9 49.9
1:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun F 49.4 49.6 49.6
7:30 CHF SVME-PMI Jun 50.2 49.4
7:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Jun 55.2 54.8
7:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.5 50.5
7:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun F 51.9 51.9
8:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F 52.5 52.5
8:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Jun 52.4 52
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun -22.50%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jun 211K 201K
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M May 0.50% 2.20%
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Jun 53 52.8
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Jun 51.3 49.5
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.9M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found support at 1.1134 and has rebounded, however, offers are still noted at 1.1250 and 1.1275-80 (stops above), more selling interest is tipped at 1.1300-10, and 1.1340-50. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1130-35, 1.1100-15 (stops below) and 1.1075-80, more buy orders are expected at 1.1050-55, 1.1030 and 1.1000, buying interest should emerge around 1.0980 and 1.0960, fresh demand is located around 1.0930 and 1.0900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7210

Although the single currency staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.6988 yesterday and consolidation above this level would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7165-75 and renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 0.7211, bring another decline later. Below 0.7045-50 would bring retest of said support at 0.6988 but break there is needed to signal recent decline has resumed in wave v for weakness to 0.6950-60 then towards 0.6920.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.2380

The greenback has risen again after brief pullback and bullishness remains for the rebound from 1.2128 (this month's low and tentatively wave ii trough) to extend gain to 1.2500, however, only break there would add credence to our view that wave ii from 1.2563 has ended at 1.2128 and bring further rise to 1.2520-25. A break of resistance at 1.2563 would confirm upmove from 1.1920 (wave c and probably entire wave iv) has resumed for gain to 1.2600 and later 1.2630-40.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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