Friday, June 12, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-12-15

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Edges Lower on Merkel, Limited Weakness

Euro edged mildly lower today but weakness is so far limited. Some selling was seen on reaction to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments. She said that the strength of euro would make it harder for countries like Portugal, Spain, and to a lesser extent Ireland, to institute reform. Meanwhile, the common currency was also soft on uncertainty in Greece debt talk. Merkel also urged all parties to return to the negotiation table on the issue as she said that "where there is a will, there is a way, but the will must come from all sides." Released from Eurozone, industrial production rose 0.1% mom in April versus expectation of 0.4% mom. Also from Europe, UK construction output dropped -0.8% mom in April versus expectation of 0.1% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1182; (P) 1.1256 (R1) 1.1332; More....

EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays in tight range below 1.1379 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.0818 support holds, rebound from 1.0461 is mildly in favor to extend to above 1.1466. But since it's viewed as a corrective move, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.0181 and bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.0818 will suggest that such corrective rise is completed and turn outlook bearish.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index May 51.5 51.8 51.7
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr F 1.20% 1.00% 1.00%
04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr -0.20% 0.40% -1.00%
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Apr -0.80% 0.10% 3.90% 1.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr 0.10% 0.40% -0.30% -0.40%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May 0.50% 0.40% -0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May -1.10% -1.10% -1.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 0.60% 0.70% 0.80%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jun 8 91.5 90.7
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found good support just above 1.1150 and has rebounded in NY morning, however, offers are still noted at 1.1250-60 and 1.1280, sell orders are reported at 1.1300, 1.1320 and 1.1335-40, selling interest should emerge at 1.1365, 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are seen at 1.1170 and 1.1150, buy orders are expected at 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest is tipped at 1.1080-85, 1.1065 and 1.1050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9400

As the greenback has retreated after holding below indicated resistance at 0.9407 (yesterday's high), retaining our bearishness and test of 0.9298 support is seen, however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 0.9255, below there would signal the rebound from 0.9233 has ended, bring retest of this level, then 0.9200-10

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Stand aside

Although yesterday's anticipated retreat signals top has possibly been formed at 1.1386 earlier this week and weakness to 1.1150 cannot be ruled out, break there would extend the fall from 1.1386 top to 1.1115-20, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below support at 1.1050, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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