Saturday, June 13, 2015

Action Insight Weekly Report 6-13-15

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Dollar Cautious ahead of FOMC, Euro Resilient

Dollar ended the week as the second weakest major currencies as traders cautiously await next week's FOMC meeting. Fed will most certainly keep policies unchanged. Markets are generally anticipating a September rate hike from Fed but there is low expectation on guidance on the timing. The main focus would indeed be Fed's updated economic projections and vote. Recent data from US were generally positive, pointing to a solid rebound in Q2. The revisions in economic projections will give much hints on how confidence the Fed is regarding the sustainability of the rebound. And, that such projections would start will have a notable impact on the rate path beyond the first hike. Meanwhile, the case of September hike would start to be solidified if one or two Fed hawks start to vote for rate hike in the meeting. So far, investors seemed to be unwilling to bet on either side yet.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

No change in EUR/USD's outlook after last week's sideway trading. Rise from 1.0461 could still be in progress and above 1.1379 temporary top will target 1.1466 and above. But after all, such rise is viewed as a corrective move. Hence, in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.0181 to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.0818 will suggest that such corrective rise is completed and turn outlook bearish.

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Suggested Readings

 

The Week in Review and Outlook

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