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Daily Report: Dollar Soft as Fed Signaled Gradual Hike PathDollar weakened broadly as Fed signaled a gradual tightening path after keeping interest rate unchanged near zero yesterday. Policies makers maintained the projection that the federal fund rate would rise to 0.625% this year and the majority still expected a September hike. However, the interest rate forecast for end of 2016 was lowered quite considerably to 1.625%, down from March estimate of 1.875%. For end of 2017, interest rate was projected to be 2.875%, also revised down from March projection of 3.125%. Fed chair Janet Yellen also sounded cautious in her press conference. She acknowledged that "considerable progress" was made towards the goal of maximum employment and inflation will "move gradually back" towards the target. Nonetheless, she also cited signs of "cyclical weakness" in the labor market and wage growth remained "subdued". She noted that "economic conditions are currently anticipated to evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the target federal funds rate." |
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GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5689; (P) 1.5767; (R1) 1.5911; More... GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.5850 so far today and the break of 1.5814 confirms resumption of whole rebound from 1.4565. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.4565 to 1.5814 from 1.5169 at 1.5941. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4565 at 1.6187. At this point, we're slightly favoring that the rebound from 1.4565 is a correction. We'd expect strong resistance around 1.6187 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.5679 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency traded narrowly after finding support at 1.1189, offers are still noted at 1.1260, 1.1280 and 1.1300, more sell orders are reported at 1.1320, 1.1340 and 1.1365, selling interest is tipped at 1.1380 and 1.1400. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1200-05 and 1.1185, buy orders are expected at 1.1150, 1.1130 and 1.1100, buying interest should emerge around 1.1080-85, 1.1065 and 1.1050. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold short entered at 1.2350The greenback has remained confined in narrow range and further consolidation is in store, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2360-65 and bring another decline, below 1.2270 would bring retest of said support at 1.2202, break there would extend the fall from 1.2563 for retracement of recent rise in wave ii, then weakness to 1.2150 would follow but 1.2100 would contain downside and 1.2050 should hold, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Stand asideAs the single currency has remained under pressure, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.7389 to extend weakness to 0.7146 (last week's low), however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon downaside would be limited to 0.7100-10 and price should stay well above support at 0.7055, bring another rebound later Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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