Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-3-15

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds Further as ECB Upgraded Inflation Forecast

Euro extends rebound against dollar after ECB lifted 2015 inflation forecast. The central bank kept interest rate at 0.05% as widely expected. Also, there is no change in the EUR 60b per month asset purchase program. ECB updated inflation forecast and estimated it to be at 0.3% this year, much better than March's projection of 0%. Meanwhile, inflation was projected to be 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, inline with prior forecast. Growth forecast is held unchanged at 1.5% for this year, 1.9% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. ECB president Mario Draghi noted that the "asset purchase programs are proceeding well" and emphasized that the improvement in economic outlook is dependent on "full implementation" of stimulus. Draghi expected economic recovery to "broaden" and domestic demand to be further supported by monetary policy measures.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0979; (P) 1.1086 (R1) 1.1257; More....

Rebound from 1.0818 extends higher today and reaches 1.1238 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 1.0461 is viewed as a corrective move with rise from 1.0818 as a leg. EUR/USD should now target 1.1466 and above. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.0181 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0818 will target 1.0461 low.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y May -1.90% -1.90%
01:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.50% 0.50%
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI May 52.5 52.6 53.1
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI May F 53.8 53.3 53.3
08:30 GBP Services PMI May 56.5 59.2 59.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr 11.10% 11.20% 11.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.70% 0.60% -0.80%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change May 201K 190K 169K 165K
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Apr -3.0B -1.95B -3.02B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Apr -40.9B -$43.2B -$51.4B
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite May 55.7 56.9 57.8
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has rallied after ECB press conference and in part due to higher German yield, barrier at 1.1200 and offers at 1.1220 as well as 1.1250 were tripped, though some sell orders are still noted at 1.1275 and 1.1300, selling interest is tipped at 1.1330 and 1.1350. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1190-00, 1.1160-70 and 1.1120-30, combination of bids and stops is located at 1.1080-90, fresh demand should emerge around 1.1050-60 and 1.1020-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1120

As the single currency has rallied again in NY morning and bullishness remains for the rise from 1.0819 to extend gain to 1.1260-70 (2 times extension of 1.0819-1.1006 measuring from 1.0887 and 61.8% projection of 1.0887-1.1194 measuring from 1.1080), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1300-10 and reckon 1.1350 would hold, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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