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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds Further as ECB Upgraded Inflation ForecastEuro extends rebound against dollar after ECB lifted 2015 inflation forecast. The central bank kept interest rate at 0.05% as widely expected. Also, there is no change in the EUR 60b per month asset purchase program. ECB updated inflation forecast and estimated it to be at 0.3% this year, much better than March's projection of 0%. Meanwhile, inflation was projected to be 1.5% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, inline with prior forecast. Growth forecast is held unchanged at 1.5% for this year, 1.9% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. ECB president Mario Draghi noted that the "asset purchase programs are proceeding well" and emphasized that the improvement in economic outlook is dependent on "full implementation" of stimulus. Draghi expected economic recovery to "broaden" and domestic demand to be further supported by monetary policy measures. | |
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EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0979; (P) 1.1086 (R1) 1.1257; More.... Rebound from 1.0818 extends higher today and reaches 1.1238 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise from 1.0461 is viewed as a corrective move with rise from 1.0818 as a leg. EUR/USD should now target 1.1466 and above. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.0181 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0818 will target 1.0461 low. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has rallied after ECB press conference and in part due to higher German yield, barrier at 1.1200 and offers at 1.1220 as well as 1.1250 were tripped, though some sell orders are still noted at 1.1275 and 1.1300, selling interest is tipped at 1.1330 and 1.1350. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.1190-00, 1.1160-70 and 1.1120-30, combination of bids and stops is located at 1.1080-90, fresh demand should emerge around 1.1050-60 and 1.1020-30. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.1120As the single currency has rallied again in NY morning and bullishness remains for the rise from 1.0819 to extend gain to 1.1260-70 (2 times extension of 1.0819-1.1006 measuring from 1.0887 and 61.8% projection of 1.0887-1.1194 measuring from 1.1080), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1300-10 and reckon 1.1350 would hold, bring retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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