Saturday, June 6, 2015

Action Insight Weekly Report 6-6-15

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Euro Outshone Dollar But that May Not Last

Euro ended last week as the strongest major currency as boosted by a few factors. Firstly, May CPI flash came in higher than expected at 0.3% yoy versus consensus of 0.2% yoy. And, core CPI also jumped 0.9% yoy versus expectation of 0.7% yoy, suggesting that the rebound in inflation was not entirely due to energy prices. Secondly, euro was lifted by surging German bond yields which touched the highest level since September at 0.996% before retreating back to 0.84%. The 36bps weekly gain was the largest since October 1998. Also, recent change in sentiment was rather drastic when taking into considering German yield was a low as 0.49% in back in April. This reflected optimism in improvements in the underlying economy of Eurozone. Thirdly, Greece and international creditors seemed to have entered into another stage of negotiation after EU, ECB and IMF came up with a unified proposal. While there are still many issues to resolve, the negotiations would likely be more focused.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY's rally from 126.09 resumed last week and reached as high as 141.04 before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 136.95 support holds, another rally is still expected. Above 141.04 will target 100% projection of 126.09 to 136.95 from 133.09 at 143.95. At this point, rebound from 126.09 is still viewed as a leg of the consolidation pattern from 149.76. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance above 143.95 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 136.95 support will argue that such rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside.

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